Israel Alienating Allies and Acquiring Adversaries 

By Joseph Chamie
PORTLAND, USA, Nov 11 2024 – As a result of its policies and actions in response to the 7 October attack, the Israeli government has not only alienated its allies and acquired adversaries but also found itself isolated diplomatically. The consequences of those developments and realignments have occurred across countries, organizations and groups worldwide.

Situation

The Israeli government’s actions in Gaza have been criticized by the United Nations, specialized agencies, Western allies, the International Court of Justice (ICJ), human rights and humanitarian organizations and independent observers.

Israel has found itself in violation of the decisions of international courts, in conflict with international humanitarian and human rights organizations, viewed critically by most of the world and increasingly isolated diplomatically

US president Biden, for example, warned Israel that it was losing international support because of its indiscriminate bombing of the Gaza Strip and described Israel’s military response in Gaza over the top. President Macron of France also said that Israel has used excessive force, resulting in disproportionate casualties and destruction.

Over 150 civil society and non-governmental organizations have urged world governments to help end the war crimes being committed by the Israeli government in Gaza. Also, more than 800 scholars of international law and genocide have signed a public statement arguing that the Israeli military may be committing genocidal acts against Palestinians in Gaza.

Setting

The long-running conflict between Israelis and Palestinians concerns a relatively small but historically important parcel of land. In addition, the two populations directly involved are comparatively small in numbers.

Israel is about the territorial size of the US state of New Jersey and has about the same size population. Israel’s population is close to 10 million, with 77 percent being Jewish. The Occupied Palestinian Territory (OPT), which is about one quarter the size of Israel, has a population of about 5.5 million. The combined population of Israel and the OPT is approximately 15.5 million, or about the size of a large metropolitan city, such as Istanbul, Los Angeles or Moscow. About half of the combined population of Israel and the OPT would be Jewish (Figure 1).

Source: Israel, Central Bureau of Statistics and State of Palestine, Central Bureau of Statistics.

Decisions

Despite the land areas and populations being comparatively small, the Israeli- Palestinian conflict continues to be an issue of concern extending well beyond its borders.

The International Court of Justice (ICJ), for example, has concluded that Israel’s occupation and annexation of the OPT are unlawful. The ICJ found that Israel’s discriminatory laws and policies against Palestinians violate the prohibition on racial segregation and apartheid. In addition to ICJ, Israeli, Palestinian and international human rights organizations as well as independent observers have found Israel practicing apartheid in the OPT.

The findings of the ICJ are supported by the majority of countries. In a vote in September by the 193-member UN General Assembly, 124 governments supported the ICJ advisory opinion, while 14 opposed it. The adopted UN resolution also demands that Israel “brings to an end without delay its unlawful presence” in the OPT (Figure 2).

Source: United Nations, Israel and State of Palestine.

Earlier in May, the UN General Assembly overwhelmingly backed a Palestinian bid to become a full UN member and recommended that the Security Council reconsider the matter favorably. The vote reflected the increasing global solidarity with Palestinians and a rebuke to America and Israel.

While 143 countries supported the resolution calling for full UN membership of the State of Palestine, 14 countries opposed it. The resolution was adopted by the General Assembly a month after the US vetoed the Palestinian bid to become a full UN member in the Security Council.

Although it has not become a full UN member, by mid-2024 the State of Palestine has been officially recognized as a sovereign state by 146 countries, representing 87 percent of the world’s population.

The most recent countries to recognize the State of Palestine are Spain, Ireland and Norway. Those three countries hoped that their recognition of Palestine would encourage the peace process in Gaza and spur other European Union countries to follow suit.

Consequences

The Israeli government’s responses to the Hamas-led terrorist attack on 7 October have contributed significantly to alienating its allies and acquiring adversaries. Many countries have voiced objections to Israel’s intensive bombing of Gaza, resulting in high numbers of civilian deaths and injuries, especially women and children.

Over twelve months of conflict since the 7 October attack, the reported number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza is about 20 times greater than the number of Israeli deaths. Moreover, the mortality rate of the Palestinians is 100 times greater than the Israeli mortality rate.

Top United Nations officials recently described the current situation in northern Gaza as being “apocalyptic”. They warned that the entire Palestinian population in North Gaza is at imminent risk of dying from disease, famine and violence. They also stressed that required humanitarian aid cannot keep up with the needs of the Palestinians due to the blockade and access constraints by Israeli forces.

Although Israel disagrees with the finding of the ICJ, the court found that some of the rights asserted by South Africa versus Israel under the Genocide Convention are plausible. In addition, many scholars of international law and genocide have concluded that the Israeli attacks on Gaza are being conducted with potentially genocidal intent and have described the assault on Gaza as unprecedented in scale and severity.

The ICJ’s findings have also contributed to political problems in the US over the Biden’s administration’s indispensable role and complicity in what many American progressives have described as “Israel’s slaughter and starvation of Palestinians”. Protests and progressive activism opposing Israel’s actions, which are viewed as having created a humanitarian disaster in Gaza, have taken place across America as well as in other countries.

A July national opinion poll of US voters reported that a narrow majority disapproved of Israel’s actions in Gaza. The Israel war on Gaza has also impacted the US Congress and affected the US presidential election in some important swing states.

The Israeli government’s recent actions in Lebanon have also been publicly criticized in the US. The administration said it opposed the scope of Israel’s air strikes in Beirut amid a rising toll of deaths and injuries. Also, former CIA director, Leon Panetta, labeled Israel’s deadly pager explosions in Lebanon a form of terrorism.

In addition to governments, specialized agencies and international courts, more than fifty global humanitarian and human rights organizations have condemned the Israel’s actions in Gaza. They also called on world leaders to protect UNRWA and use all diplomatic means to prevent Israel from severely limiting or outright banning UNRWA.

Proposals

Various proposals have been offered to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The proposal most widely supported is the two-state solution. It recommends establishing an independent state for Palestinians alongside that of Israel with the two states existing peacefully within recognized borders and security ensured for both nations.

The UN General Assembly and the Security Council have concluded that a lasting end to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict can only come through the two-state solution. The Israeli government, however, is opposed to the two-state solution. In addition to government officials, Israel’s Knesset passed a resolution that overwhelmingly rejected the establishment of a Palestinian state.

Some believe that the two-state solution is no longer an option primarily due to today’s realities. Approximately 750,000 Israelis, or about 10 percent of Israel’s Jewish population, are currently residing in settlements in East Jerusalem and the West Bank, which is in violation of Article 49 of the Fourth Geneva Convention. Consequently, the de facto option to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict appears to be the one-state solution.

The one-state solution ensures equal rights for all citizens, irrespective of religious identity. However, Israel rejects the one-state solution since it would undermine the Jewish character of Israel.

Other proposals to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict include a confederation of Israel, Jordan and Palestine, a federation of smaller Palestinian provinces or cantons, autonomy-plus for the Palestinians and the establishment of a Jewish Greater Israel (Table 1).

Many Israelis of the religious far right seek the establishment of a Jewish Greater Israel. Its establishment would necessarily involve the departure, expulsion or transfer of large numbers of the non-Jewish populations residing in the OPT.

Conclusions

The Israeli government has recently rejected the two-state solution, the one-state solution and various other proposals to resolve its conflict with the Palestinians. Moreover, Israel’s government has been unwilling or unable to provide an explicit peace plan of its own to resolve the conflict.

Consequently, it appears that Israeli government is pursuing the continuation of the status quo, which includes increasing settlements in the OPT. However, many consider the continuation of the status quo to be untenable, clearly not a resolution to the conflict and contributes to placing Israel’s Jewish democracy in peril. Many maintain that it’s time for diplomacy that leads to a negotiated settlement as military action won’t solve the conflict.

Due to its policies in the OPT, its recent actions in Gaza and its lack of an explicit peace plan, the Israeli government has increasingly alienated its vital allies and acquired additional adversaries.

Israel has found itself in violation of the decisions of international courts, in conflict with international humanitarian and human rights organizations, viewed critically by most of the world and increasingly isolated diplomatically.

In brief, the Israeli government appears to be winning the battles on the ground but losing the war in the hearts and minds of people in governments, international agencies, human rights organizations and communities around the world.

Joseph Chamie is a consulting demographer, a former director of the United Nations Population Division and author of numerous publications on population issues, including his recent book, “Population Levels, Trends, and Differentials”.